Will Australia Property Market Collapse this Time?
Our simple answer is ‘NO’, for reasons as following
- Australia property market just came back from the down trend about half a year ago. The current sharp drop of market activities are due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Many buyers have fears of losing jobs or other stable incomes and pulled themselves back from the market. Many vendors think it is not a good time to sell properties given the bans on auctions and open inspections plus other uncertainties. So before COVID-19, the market had the demand slightly over the supply. Now simply both demand and supply went to hibernation simultaneously.
- The low interest and government support for first home buyers will last for quite a long time. When COVID-19 crisis is over, buyers who ensure their incomes will come back, vendors with properties withdrawn this time will have their ones re-listed. Whether the price will go up or fall down, we will see how demand vs supply will look like then. Most likely, a healthy mild increase will be important and beneficial for Australian economy after this crisis.
- To support economy through this crisis, till present, Australian governments committed $213.6 billion from federal, $11.8 billion from states and $105 billion in RBA-government lending. And Australia GDP in 2019 is estimated to be $1.89 trillion. So there are about 17-18% of Australian GPD amount of money injected by governments into the economy.
- Some may say additional funds injected by governments may not cause any significant increase on inflations. But that is most likely when the injected funds go to capital asset sectors instead of house holds. And Property is one of capital asset types.
- The stimulus implemented by Australian governments are focus on keeping jobs and help low incomes, which will most likely go into commodity market. We may see a higher inflation in 2020, which is also what RBA would like to see, since the inflation rate has been lower than the target for last two years.
- Construction sector is not only a large GDP producer but also a large employment sector with 1.1 million Australians working in the industry. Therefore, to keep Australian property market at a healthy increasing pace will not only support Australian GDP, but also keep 1.1 million Australian jobs unharmed by the COVID-19 crisis. This is also why even COVID-19 contracted cases have been confirmed on construction sites, the construction works are still on essential work list and have not been banned yet.
- Keeping Australians though this hard time is vital. To get the Australian economy back on track after the crisis is also critical. Instead of injecting more funds directly to the market by governments, investments and spendings from foreigners will be more effective, efficient and healthier for the economy. Australia property market as one of largest sectors for foreign investors will play an important roll here.
Melbourne Weekly Auction Clearance – 04 April 2020
- This was 2nd week after the auction and open inspection ban.
- Less properties were under the virtual hammer via online auctions. Some were sold as private sales or went for Expression of Interest. But more were withdrawn by vendors, at least temporarily for now.
- There were merely relations when comparing this weekend results with previous results.
- The median price reported by Domain continued going lower. There was no doubt some might collect bargain details with desperate-to-sell vendors, but this opportunity will be rare as most good properties are off the list.
- 89% Clearance rate of 174 Auctions Reported
- 90% Clearance rate of 407 auctions held last week
- 57% Clearance rate of 770 auctions held this time last year
- 31 Sold at Auction
- 123 Sold before Auction
- 0 Sold after Auction
- 144 Private Sales
- 20 Passed In
- 6 Passed in Vendor Bid
- 353 Withdrawn
- 14 Postponed
- 147 No Results
- 84% Clearance for Houses
- N/A Clearance for Units
- $125M Total Auction Volume
- $109M Total Private Sales Volume
- 30% Clearance
- 51% this time last year
- 1268 Listed Auctions
- 357 Reported Auctions
- 343 Sold
- 770 Withdrawn
- 14 Passed In
- $760,000 Median
- $148.8M Total Volume
- 56% Clearance rate for 81 Auction Results
- 304 Auction scheduled
- 36 Sold at Auction
- 10 Withdrawn
- 9 Sold prior to Auction
- 26 Passed In
- 0 Sold after Auction
- 803 Private Sales
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